Your required reading from Sehgal and Pandey discusses the complexity of forecas
ID: 386816 • Letter: Y
Question
Your required reading from Sehgal and Pandey discusses the complexity of forecasting oil prices. Perform research in the academic journals in the Saudi Digital Library on the use of forecasting techniques that were discussed in this module, and in the reading. Include time series, trend analysis, and associative forecasting techniques. How are they used? Which would be the best for what industry and why?
the article name is
Artificial intelligence methods for oil price forecasting:
a review and evaluation
Neha Sehgal1 · Krishan K. Pandey2
Explanation / Answer
A presumption made in case of a ‘time series’ forecasting is that components such as cycles, trends, seasonality will recur. Line charts are usually utilized to comprehend time series forecasts. It is utilized across many business domains such as Finance; sales; Operations. Time series aid firms identify cyclical patterns, rates of growth, trends & any variation in the data series.
‘Trend analysis’ is a methodology being utilized for analysis of a technical nature which tries to forecast the upcoming stock price changes based upon recently noticed trend data. It is based on the notion that what has occurred earlier provides traders an indication of what will occur in the future.
‘Associative forecasting methods’ consist of the identification of variables which can be utilized to forecast some other variable of interest. These are based upon the presumption that the historic relation between ‘dependent’ & ‘autonomous’ variables will stay valid in the forthcoming period & every independent variable is simple enough to predict. This type of analysis takes many months & is utilized for medium run forecasts for commodities in their growth phase / maturity phase
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