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Fit a weighted 3-period moving average to the data, weighting the most recent pe

ID: 380143 • Letter: F

Question

Fit a weighted 3-period moving average to the data, weighting the most recent period 60%, the next most recent period 30%, and the remaining period 10%.Calculate the forecasted number of moviegoers for Jan (yr 4), and the MAD for the model.

Month Year

1

2

3

January

99

147

140

February

123

122

132

March

144

113

135

April

127

124

156

May

128

156

157

June

188

199

223

July

146

162

169

August

155

156

154

September

134

134

153

October

129

144

154

November

130

132

161

December

143

155

165

Month Year

1

2

3

January

99

147

140

February

123

122

132

March

144

113

135

April

127

124

156

May

128

156

157

June

188

199

223

July

146

162

169

August

155

156

154

September

134

134

153

October

129

144

154

November

130

132

161

December

143

155

165

Explanation / Answer

Let the Forecasted number of moviegoers for Jan (yr 4) = Jan4

Jan4 = WT1(Jan3) + WT2(Jan2) + WT3(Jan1)

= 0.6*140 + 0.3*147 + 0.1*99 (As 60%, 30% and 10% has been used as weights)

= 84 + 44.1 + 9.9

= 138

Absolute Deviation = 147-138

= 9

Mean Average Deviation (MAD) = 9/1 (Only One observation)

= 9