Given the following forecasts and actual sales that Yazici batteries for the yea
ID: 377272 • Letter: G
Question
Given the following forecasts and actual sales that Yazici batteries for the year 2016, determine the following:
a) Compute the MAD for the 12 months of forecasts
b) Compute MSE for the 12 months of forecasts
c) Compute MAPE for the 12 months of forecasts
Actual
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Sales
19
21
17
15
18
16
17
20
22
23
22
Forecast
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Sales
18
20
17
11
14
15
16
16
25
22
20
Actual
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Sales
19
21
17
15
18
16
17
20
22
23
22
Explanation / Answer
Below table presents calculated values of Absolute deviation, Squared error and Absolute percentage error for each month :
MONTH
ACTUAL SALES
FORECAST
ABSOLUTE DEVIATION
SQUARED ERROR
ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR
JAN
19
18
1
1
5.26
FEB
21
20
1
1
4.76
MAR
17
17
0
0
0.00
APRIL
15
11
4
16
26.67
MAY
18
14
4
16
22.22
JUNE
16
15
1
1
6.25
JULY
17
16
1
1
5.88
AUG
20
16
4
16
20.00
SEPT
22
25
3
9
13.64
OCT
23
22
1
1
4.35
NOV
22
20
2
4
9.09
TOTAL:
22
66
118.12
Following to be noted :
Absolute deviation = Difference ( i.e. no negative value ) between Forecast and Actual sales
Squared error = Square of Absolute deviation
Absolute percentage error =Absolute deviation / Actual sales x 100
Accordingly ,
Mean Absolute deviation ( MAD ) = Sum of Absolute deviations/ 11 ( i.e. number of months) = 22 / 11 = 2
Mean Squared error ( MSE ) = Sum of squared errors / 11 = 66 / 11 = 6
Mean absolute Percentage error ( MAPE ) = 118.12/ 11 = 10.74
Note : Question has asked for MAD, MSE, MAPE for 12 months whereas data provided are only for 111 months. It is not possible to calculate MAD/ MSE/MAPE for 12 months without data for December
MONTH
ACTUAL SALES
FORECAST
ABSOLUTE DEVIATION
SQUARED ERROR
ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR
JAN
19
18
1
1
5.26
FEB
21
20
1
1
4.76
MAR
17
17
0
0
0.00
APRIL
15
11
4
16
26.67
MAY
18
14
4
16
22.22
JUNE
16
15
1
1
6.25
JULY
17
16
1
1
5.88
AUG
20
16
4
16
20.00
SEPT
22
25
3
9
13.64
OCT
23
22
1
1
4.35
NOV
22
20
2
4
9.09
TOTAL:
22
66
118.12
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