.00 og SI dylGuded Sc ,e Problem 9-10The rollo s/content/attachment/b44e546d-7db
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.00 og SI dylGuded Sc ,e Problem 9-10The rollo s/content/attachment/b44e546d-7db5-471 4-b737-41 45a495495 1/Tests%20%20Quizzes/4d14 fb45-189f-41 a- testtd.PERT-OUTPUT.pd. × Management Science PERT OUTPUT: The following estimates of activity times (in days) are available for a small project Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic 6 10 7.5 10 Answering the following questions first will give you an early start for your test Compute the expected completion time and variance for each activity. An analyst has determined that the project's critical path consists of B-D-F. Compute the expected project completion time and standard deviation of project completion time. What is the probability that the project will complete before 27 days? a) b) c)Explanation / Answer
a) For each activity, find the expected mean time () = (a + 4m + b)/6, and Variance 2 = [(b-a)/6]2
where, a is optimistic time, m is most likely and b is pessimistic time
b) Expected project completion time is the sum of expected completion time of each activity on critical path.
Project completion time = 9+8.83+6 = 23.83
Similarly, project variance is the sum of individual variance of each activity on critical path.
Variance of project completion time = 0.111+0.25+0.111 = 0.472
Standard deviation of project completion time, = Square root of variance = 0.472 = 0.687
c) For target completion time (t) of 27 days, z-value = (t - )/ = (27-23.833)/0.678 = 4.61
For z value of 4.61, corresponding F(z) = 1
Probability that the project will complete before 27 days = 100 %
Activity Optimistic (a) Most likely (m) Pessimistic (b) Mean time () Variance (2) A 4.0 5.0 6.0 5.00 0.11 B 8.0 9.0 10.0 9.00 0.11 C 7.0 7.5 11.0 8.00 0.44 D 7.0 9.0 10.0 8.83 0.25 E 6.0 7.0 9.0 7.17 0.25 F 5.0 6.0 7.0 6.00 0.11Related Questions
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