Problem 4.31 Question Help Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North Ca

Question

Problem 4.31 Question Help Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North Carolina, for the past 24 weeks are shown in the following table. Week Calls Week Calls 12 39 24 65 10 19 34 25 15 26 39 16 56 45 17 54 34 18 41 21 19 34 32 20 60 16 23 41 13 21 75 35 51 a) Assuming a starting forecast of 50.00 for week 1 with a smoothing constant of 0.30, the forecasts for weeks 2 through 24 have been developed and are provided below. Continuing with the given information, the forecast for week 25 is (round your response to two decimal places): Week Calls Week Calls 12 50.00 50.00 45.20 39.14 39.10 40.87 38.81 33.47 33.03 33.92 29.44 25,41 13 15 16 17 18 19 21 23 24 25 29.49 36.84 36.29 33.20 40.04 44.23 43.26 40.48 46.34 54.94 53.76 49.93

Explanation / Answer

Exponential smoothing Forecast Ft+1 = Ft+*(At-Ft) where is smoothing constant.

Forecast for week 25 = F24+*(A24 - F24) = 49.93+0.3*(65-49.93) = 54.45

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