Given the initial cost of $1,000 determine the Learning Rate (LR) that \"best fi

Question

Given the initial cost of $1,000 determine the Learning Rate (LR) that "best fits" the actual observed data in GREY Fill by changing the LR value in YELLOW Fill/RED Text 1- What is the LR Value in cell with YELLOW Fill/RED Text that best fits the "Actual" data observed in GREY Fill? Refer to Chart A for initial visual indicators... 2- If employee turnover significantly increases to the point few employees ever reach full efficiencies, what do you suspect will happen to the observed learning rate for your company? Will it drift towards 99% or towards 80 °? Explain in less than 30 words Initial Cost estimated at$1000 LR 95.00% Initially set to 0.95 b--0.074000581 -0.01449957 -0.321928095 95.00% 99% LR too low $967.16 $957.49 $951.88 $947.92 $944.86 $942.36 $940.26 $938.44 $936.84 $935.41 Test LR Unit LR too high $476.51 $381.21 $334.56 $304.97 $283.83 $267.65 $254.69 $243.97 $234.90 $227.06 ActualPredicted LR 10$667.67 $843.33 20 $591.22 $801.17 30 $550.63 $777.49 40 $523.53 $761.11 50$503.43 $748.64 60$487.58 $738.61 70 $474.57 $730.23 80 $463.59 $723.05 90 $454.10 $716.78 100 $445.79 $711.21 Chart A: $1,200.00 800.00 Actual $600.00 Predicted LR LR too low 400.00 LR too high $200.00 $0.00 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Explanation / Answer

First we see the expected

To fit the actual value: we change the learning curve value

the value must be within 80 to 95

So we ty to fit:

At 90:

So need to drop it futher:

At 85:

So need to increase more

Similarly changing the value we get:

Hence 88.55 is the correct actual learning curve.

2.

It will increase towards 80% as the learning curve will drop significantly from 88.45 % towards 80 %. The drop will be because each time the learning will start from scratch, once a new person joins.

Learning Curve Calculator Improvement Rate--> 5% Learning Rate--> 95% Unit Number (quantity produced, pieces) Unit Cost (hrs/pc) 1 1000.00 10 843.33 20 801.17 30 777.49 40 761.11 50 748.64 60 738.61 70 730.23 80 723.05 90 716.78 100 711.21

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