A disease sweeps through a population of 20 capuchin monkeys. They each have 80%

Question

A disease sweeps through a population of 20 capuchin monkeys. They each have 80% chance of catching the disease. Those contracting the disease have a 50% chance of mortality (or infertility) from the disease.

a) What is the probability that the group will be completely wiped out by the disease (population size zero)?

b) What is the probability that the group will be functionally wiped out (population size 1 or 0)?

c) What other possible route to local extinction from this disease outbreak has been ignored?

Explanation / Answer

a)

Probability of catching the disease and dying or becoming infertile = 0.8 x 0.5 = 0.4.

Probability of this happening to 20 individuals 0.420 or 1.0995 * 108 or 0.000000010995

b)

Probability that one individuals survives 0.419 * 0.6 * 20 = 3.2985 * 107

With probability of population size zero (+ previous answer) = 3.4085 * 17

c)

Probability that there are 2 or more individuals all the same sex.

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