Schizophrenia affects about 1% of the population. Imagine that scientists discov

Question

Schizophrenia affects about 1% of the population. Imagine that scientists discover a simple blood test that can tell with 95% accuracy whether a person will develop schizophrenia. Tha is, 95% of the people who actually will develop schizophrenia will correctly test positive (but 5% will falsely test negative), and 95% of the people who actually will never develop schizophrenia will correctly test negative (but 5% will falsely test positive). You take the test and the results come back positive. What is the appropzimate probability that you will actually develop schizophrenia?

A. 95%
B. 90%
C. 50% (either you will develop it or you won't; the test results are irrelevant)
D. 17%
E. 10%
F. 5%

Explanation / Answer

The answer is Option C, 50%. The probability of the test providing accurate results are irrelevant because it is only measuring schizophrenia, it has nothing to do with the development of the disorder.

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