Using PERT, Adam Munson was able to determine that the expected project completi

Question

Using PERT, Adam Munson was able to determine that the expected project completion time for the construction of a pleasure yacht is 2121 months, and the project variance is 1616. a) The probability that the project will be completed in 55 months = nothing (round your response to four decimal places). b) The probability that the project will be completed in 2020 months = nothing (round your response to four decimal places). c) The probability that the project will be completed in 2525 months = nothing (round your response to four decimal places). d) The probability that the project will be completed in 3737 months = nothing (round your response to four decimal places). e) The due date that yields a 95% chance of completion = nothing months (round your response to two decimal places).

Explanation / Answer

z - value = (Estimate Time - Expected Time/standard deviation

Expected Time = 2121

standard deviation = sqrt(Variance) = sqrt(1616) = 40.1995

a) Estimated Time = 55

z -value = (55-2121)/40.1995 = -51.3937

Probability with above z - value is 0.0000

b) Estimated Time = 2020

z-value = (2020-2121)/40.1995 = -2.5125

Probability with above z - value is 0.0060

c) Estimated Time = 2525

z-value = (2525-2121)/40.1995 = 10.0499

Probability with above z - value is 1.0000

d) Estimated Time = 3737

z-value = (3737-2121)/40.1995 = 40.1995

Probability with above z - value is 1.0000

Note - Probability can be calculated from z-table or using formula NORM.S.DIST in excel

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