A study of U.S. counties shows that counties with high arrest rates for armed ro

Question

A study of U.S. counties shows that counties with high arrest rates for armed robberies (with a firearm) also have high proportions of conservative Republicans. The authors conclude that Republicans commit more armed robberies than non-Republicans.

What is the unit of analysis under investigation in the research project? What mistake does the researcher make in the conclusion? What is a more likely explanation for the association between party identification and robbery arrest rates on a county level?

Explanation / Answer

Unit under analysis is the number of arrests.

The mistake is that they are assuming that the total proportion of arrest is same through out. But there is a possibility that the non-republicans may not get caught.

More likely conclusion is that most of the republicans get caught after the armed robbery

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