Kristen Pacheco owns a small restaurant that\'s open seven days a week. Until re
ID: 339343 • Letter: K
Question
Kristen Pacheco owns a small restaurant that's open seven days a week. Until recently, she forecasted the daily number of customers she would have using her intuition. However, she wanted to open another restaurant and recognized the need to adopt a more formal method of forecasting that could be used in both locations. Kristen decided to compare a three week moving average forecast with exponential smoothing forecasts using ? = .7 and ? = .3. She collected sales data for a month. The actual sales for the past three weeks are shown in the table below along with her forecast for last week. Customers Per Day Week Sun on Tue Wed Thu Fri Actual 138 3 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week 183 194 196 182 191 204 188 200 193 207 277 388 213 292401 226 313 157 Forecast: Last week 155 191 192 198 204 286 396 What is the forecast for Kristen's sales for each day of the week using a three-week moving average? a 146, 187, 187, 193, 205, 281, 392 D 146, 191, 192, 194, 215, 294, 399 C. 155, 191, 192, 198, 204, 286, 396 d. None of the above Using the data from Question 1 and this updated actual sales data, what is the mean average deviation for Kristen's forecast when using exponential smoothing with Customers Per Day Week Sun Mon Tue WedThu Fri Sat Actual 160 204 197 210 215 300 421 a 8.14 b. 8.27 None of the above Using the data from Question 1 and this updated actual sales data, what is the mean average deviation for Kristen's forecast when using exponential smoothing with Customers Per Day Week un Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Actual 160 204 197 210 215 00 421 a.8.57 b. 8.93 C. 10.4 None nf the ahoveExplanation / Answer
Part i)
According to 3-weeks moving average method, the forecast of the week is the average value of recent 3 weeks actual value.
For Sunday, forecast = (157+143+138)/3 = 146
For Monday, forecast = (196+194+183)/3 = 191
For Tue, forecast = (204+191+182)/3 = 192.3
For Wed, forecast = (193+200+188)/3 = 193.67 ~ 194
For thus, forecast = (207+213+226)/3 = 215.33
For fri. forecast = (313+292+277)/3 = 294
For sat, Forecast = (408+401+388)/3 = 399
Correct answer: b. 146, 191, 194, 215, 294, 399
(for next question which weeks data is updated is not mentioned)
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