Historically, the libertarians had a decent success in New-Knoxville. With that

Question

Historically, the libertarians had a decent success in New-Knoxville. With that in mind, the poll company created 4 hypotheses about the proportion of people that would vote for libertarians in the upcoming elections (A, B, C and D). New poll results arrive: out of 100 respondents, 34 said that they will vote for libertarians and 66 said that they will vote for somebody else. Find the posterior distribution by filling in the information in the table.

Hypothesis Prior Likelihood Posterior(unnorm) posterior A: = 0.30 0.10 B: = 0.40 0.10 C: = 0.50 0.20 D: = 0.60 0.60

Explanation / Answer

A: = 0.30   the posterior distribution is Binomial(100,0.1)

B: = 0.40  the posterior distribution is Binomial(100,0.1)

C: = 0.50 the posterior distribution is Binomial(100,0.2)

D: = 0.60   the posterior distribution is Binomial(100,0.6)

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