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answer is 0.1544 SHOW WORK Suppose that 11.7 percent of the messages that arrive

ID: 3374690 • Letter: A

Question

answer is 0.1544

SHOW WORK

Suppose that 11.7 percent of the messages that arrive at an email server contain 'spam. To identify 'spam' messages, the server software searches for words and phrases like 'buy direct' income from home,' 'cash' 'no fees' and several others. Based on past experience, the server has determined that 93.5 percent of spam messages contain these phrases, and 5.1 percent of non-spam messages contain these phrases. What is the probability that an email message will contain one of the flagged 'spam' phrases? Round your answer to four digits to the right of the decimal.)

Explanation / Answer

Ans:

Given that

P(spam)=0.117

P(non-spam)=1-0.117=0.883

P(phrase/spam)=0.935

P(phrase/non spam)=0.051

So,

P(phrase)=P(phrase/spam)*P(spam)+P(phrase/non spam)*P(non spam)

=0.935*0.117+0.051*0.883

=0.1094+0.0450

= 0.1544