The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration gathers data concerning

Question

The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration gathers data concerning the causes of highway crashes where at least one fatality has occurred. From the 1998 annual study, the following probabilities were determined (BAC is blood-alcohol level): P(BAC 0Crash with fatality) 0.617 P(BAC is between.01 and.09|Crash with fatality)-0.331 P(BAC is greater than.09 Crash with fatality) - 0.052 Suppose over a certain stretch of highway during a 1-year period, the probability of being involved in a crash that results in at least one fatal is O 026 it has been estimated that 12% of all drivers d ve while their BAC is grater than.09. Determine the probability of a crash with at least one fatality if a driver drives while legally intoxicated (BAC greater than 0.09) Probability

Explanation / Answer

P(crash with fatality|BAC greater than 0.09)

=P(crash with fatality)*P(BAC greater than 0.09|crash with fatality)/P(BAC greater than 0.09)

=0.026*0.052/0.12=0.011267

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