4 430 all 52%. 10:38 AM 1 915) 201-8669 5 photos Yesterday Q10 Forecast at the b

Question

4 430 all 52%. 10:38 AM 1 915) 201-8669 5 photos Yesterday Q10 Forecast at the beginning of 1-3 ?E a. 308 b. 138 e. 217 d 230 If sample information is oblained, the result of te saple infiemation will he ewer peive or No matter which resili occurs, die choice lo sel" 4 ?"ion A i-op. km B-siada Aud m» merter wh option is chosen, the eventual oulcone will be good or po Comple the table a questions Sample States of Prior Conditiosal Resul Nature Probabilicies Positive good Poor Negativegood negative good Q11 The posterior probability with sample resulk "positive" and the stte of natue"o"in a. 0.0508 b. 0.5600 09492 d. 07509 Q12 The posterior probability with sample result "nepative and the stute of natuve ri c. 0.9492 d 0 856 a. 0.658S b. 0.7000 2:08 PM a. 10

Explanation / Answer

Q11) Posterior Probability of Sample result positive and state of nature good is

= (0.56*0.7)/(0.8*0.7+0.3*0.1)

= 0.9492

Q12) Posterior Probability of Sample result negative and state of nature poor is

= (0.3*0.9)/(0.7*0.2+0.3*0.9)

= 0.6585

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