The objective of this project is to examine real life extreme probability events

Question

The objective of this project is to examine real life extreme probability events. We will also use the probability methods of this chapter to calculate the probability of winning a game of chance of your choosing Part One (25 points): Extreme Probabilities Find an example online of an extremely unlikely event or situation. Examples may include: An extremely rare disease . An improbable birth .An unlikely stock rise or crash .An unlikely astronomical event Etc. The probability of being struck by lightning in a given year 'is: 1/1,083,000~ 9.23 × 10-7 = 0.000000923. Please include your example if the probability of the event is less likely than being struck by lightning. Please type your responses to the following prompts: A. In a short paragraph, describe the situation or event. Be sure to include a description of all relevant information so all of us can understand the event or situation. Why is this event extremely unlikely? Where did you find your event? Is the source reputable? Is there any bias that may be present because of the source? How much more likely are you to get struck by lightning this year than for your event to occur? Hint: Divide the probability of getting struck by lightning by the probability of your event. B. C. D.

Explanation / Answer

Part a

Consider the real life situation of the earthquake. Suppose, we consider single state of USA and then find the number of deaths in the selected state during the last 10 years. So, it will observe that the number of deaths will be very small as compared to entire population of the state. The event of earthquake is rear event and possibility of being struck by earthquake is very low. This event is extreme probability event.

Part b

This event is extremely unlikely because only 4 people died out of 10 million people due to earthquake (as per data for earthquake for last 10 years). So, probability of struck by earthquake is given as below:

Probability of struck by earthquake = 27/10000000 = 0.0000027

So, this probability is extremely unlikely.

Part c

We find this event on the government website of data for earthquake. Source is reputable and there would be small bias due to instrumental and other human error. We can collect the information from the government agency or website regarding earthquake.

Part d

Required probability = 0.000000923/0.0000027 = 0.341851852

About 34% more likely we are get struck by lightning than earthquake.

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