. Data from 3. Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle acc

Question

. Data from 3. Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below: Bicycle Victims 4 4 a. What are the forecasts for days 4 through 8 using a 3-period moving average model? Round the forecasts to two decimal places. b. With an alpha value of .4 and a starting forecast in day 3 equal to the actual data, what are the exponentially smoothed forecasts for days 4 through 8? Round the forecasts to two decimal places c. What is the MAD for the 3-period moving average forecasts for days 4 through 7? Compare it to the MAD for the exponential smoothing forecasts for days 4 through 7

Explanation / Answer

(a) Here 3 month movingg average for week 4 = (6 + 8 + 4)/3 = 6

Here F8 = 8.33

(b) Here alpha = 0.4

T3 = F3

Ft+1 = 0.4 Yt + 0.6 Ft

(c) Comparing MAD here

Exponendtial

Forecast

Here MAD (3MA) = 1.833

MAD(exponential smoothing ) = 2.43

so we shall choose 3 month average method.

Day Bicycle Victims Forecast 1 6 2 8 3 4 4 7 6 5 9 6.33 6 9 6.67 7 7 8.33 8.33

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