2-171. + Customers are used to evaluate preliminary product succesS good reviews

Question

2-171. + Customers are used to evaluate preliminary product succesS good reviews, 60% of moderately successful products received good reviews, and 10% of poor products received good reviews. In addition, 40% of products have been highly successful, 35% have been moderately successful, and 25% have been poor products. (a) What is the probability that a product attains a good review? (b) If a new design attains a good review, what is the probability that it will be a highly successful product? (c) If a product does not attain a good review, what is the probability that it will be a highly successful product?

Explanation / Answer

a) P( good review) = 0.95*0.40+0.60*0.35+0.10*0.25 = 0.615

b) P( Sucessful/Good review) = (0.95*0.40)/0.615 = 0.618 ( rounded to three places of decimal)

c) P(  Sucessful/Not Good review) = (0.95*0.4))/(1-0.615) = 0.9870

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