P.3.8 Suppose that there are 50 people in a room. It can be shown (under certain
ID: 3351548 • Letter: P
Question
P.3.8 Suppose that there are 50 people in a room. It can be shown (under certain assumptions) that the probability is approximately 0.97 that at least two people in the room have the same birthday (month and date, not necessarily year). a. Explain what this value 0.97 means, as if to someone who has never studied probability or statistics. b. Now consider the question of how likely it is that at least one person in the room of 50 matches your par- ticular birthday. (Do not attempt to calculate this prob- ability.) Is this event more, less, or equally likely as the event that at least two people share any birthday? In other words, do you think this probability will be smaller than 0.97, larger than 0.97, or equal to 0.97? Explain your reasoning. c. Explain how you could use simulation (imagine you had a hat with 365 slips of paper in it, each with a number from 1 to 365 listed on it) to confirm that the probability is 0.97 in part (a).Explanation / Answer
Answer:
a) Explain what this value 0.97 means as if to someone who has never studied probability or statistics
b) How likely it is that at least one person in the room of 50 matches your particular birthday
c) Explain how you could use simulation to confirm the probability is 0.97
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