BOOKMARKS Case 4.4 Proposed Gold Mine in Canada: Phased Project Planning tion ho

Question

BOOKMARKS Case 4.4 Proposed Gold Mine in Canada: Phased Project Planning tion holes to learn more about the general geology of the area. Peter summarizes: July 12, 2006: Peter's firm acquires the rights to an ore body in the Canadian Shield region. The firm is considering developing a new mine there, and Peter is responsible for proposing a project plan to the board in September. The mine will take a few years to reach full production, and there is much uncertainty as to the price of gold when that hap- pens. Peter includes in his proposal a history of gold prices (Figure 4.11). August 2, 2006: Peter meets with Bruce, a mining engineer with two decades of experience in Australian gold mines, and Sam, a geologist who, a few years back, did exploratory work on gold deposits in the Canadian Shield region. They discuss known facts about the ore body, the likelihood of unforeseen geological phenomena that could jeopardize mine development, pro- duction figures that might be achieved, and pro- duction costs and technical problems that might be experienced in extracting gold from the ore. A quick calculation shows that 300,000 ounces of gold per year at $700 per ounce would be very lucrative, but a figure of 150,000 ounces at $400 per ounce, 3 years from now, would lead to large losses that could ruin the company. Current information about the ore body is inadequate, however, and it will be necessary to drill explora- To the best of our knowledge, we could produce anywhere between 150,000 and 300,000 ounces a year. The capital cost for developing the shaft will be US $150 million to $260 million, and annual oper- ational costs could be $60 million to $100 million. Exploration to provide infor- mation on the ore body would require drilling 200 exploration holes at a cost of somewhere between $1.2 million and $1.6 million. Rock samples from these holes will be analyzed in a laboratory to determine the gold content. Peter instructs Sam to review the data from his previous exploration work and to prepare a report of his recommendations concerning the future exploration. He is authorized to spend no more than $25,000 on this paper exercise." They agree that, should the exploration holes yield good results, a "demonstration shaft" will be sunk to haul out a sample of 30,000 tons of ore to be processed to extract gold. Results from this demo would increase confidence about the amount of

Explanation / Answer

2- The project is about mining gold in Canada, sucess of which depends on lots of factors like prevalent gold price, the volume of ores to be extracted, content of gold in that ore, mining viability etc.When this project is divided into multiple phases it will be best to estimate more accurately for the short range time period and the earliest phases. When we do broad brush for the later phases there is higher probability of not happening that estimates and failure rate is more.A decision should not be taken by considering more on distant future but it should be taken by considering more to near future and by giving more weightage to it.

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