Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in the given table. Compute four-we

Question

Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in the given table.

Compute four-week and five-week moving averages for the time series. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

Compute the MSE for the four-week and five-week moving average forecasts. If required, round your intermediate calculations to four decimal places and round your final answers to three decimal places.

MSE for four-week moving average =

MSE for five-week moving average =

What appears to be the best number of weeks of past data (three, four, or five) to use in the moving average computation? Recall that MSE for the three-week moving average is 17.388.

Week Sales (1000s of gallons) 1 18 2 20 3 19 4 24 5 17 6 15 7 21 8 19 9 23 10 20 11 14 12 23

Explanation / Answer

from above: 4 period moving average is below:

5 period moving average is below:

MSE for four-week moving average = 15.938

MSE for five-week moving average = 12.137

as MSE for  five-week moving average is lowest therefore 5 week moving average  appears to be the best number of weeks of past data to use in the moving average computation

Week Sales(A) 4 Period Moving Average(F) (A-F)2 1 18 2 20 3 19 4 24 5 17 20.25 10.5625 6 15 20 25 7 21 18.75 5.0625 8 19 19.25 0.0625 9 23 18 25 10 20 19.5 0.25 11 14 20.75 45.5625 12 23 19 16 20 total 127.5 mean=total/8 15.938

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