very easy probability problem thanks IWikipedial Let\'s Make a Deal is a televis
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very easy probability problem
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IWikipedial Let's Make a Deal is a television game show that originated in the United States in 1963 and has since been produced in many countries throughout the world. The program was created and produced by Stefan Hatos and Monty Hall, the latter serving as its host for many years. The program's defining game mechanism is that the other item is hidden from the trader in one of the boxes until that choice is made. The trader thus does not know if he or she is getting the real prize or a prize that is referred to as a "zonk, an item purposely chosen to be of little or no value to the trader. For simplicity, let us assume you are the trader and you are shown 3 boxes and asked to guess the one with the real prize (so the other two contain "zonk"s). 1) In the first step you choose one box, lets say box#1. The host told you that "buddy it's no good, I will make a favor for you and eliminate the last box (#3). Now you have 2 boxes: box#1 (your choice) and box #2. 2) So would you still choose box#1? Or change your pick to box#2? Or it does not matter (same probability). JustifyExplanation / Answer
If we are in the favor then we assume that the #3 is empty then there are 2/3 chances of winning the good prize if we change the box.
because after removing one box there are two chances of winning when we change the box .
And if we does not change the box then the chances of winning good prize is only 1/3 because initially probability of winning is only 1/3 and we are not any prior information about the #3 box.
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