DATA SET: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HPCSVGw9FLt_fR-TpfCUCx0acQfAf_

Question

DATA SET: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HPCSVGw9FLt_fR-TpfCUCx0acQfAf_TRGBAcUIStpZI/edit?usp=sharing

a.) First create a variable called “time”, which simply lists the week number (instead of the date). So you will have a column with “1, 2, 3…...52”.”

b.) Determine the best time series model to forecast “Volume” for this data (i.e. either a moving average model or a trend). Explain why using the data to back up your answer.

c.) Use either the MSE (or MAD) or the R^2 to determine the validity of your model and find a model that best captures your data.

d.) Use excel to produce a graph with both the forecasted Volume as well as the actual data.

e.) Finally, use your model to predict sales Volume of the stock of your choice 1 month from now.

f.) Summarize your findings in a short MEMO.

Explanation / Answer

(a). A variable called time can be created in excel by grouping togehter all dates that fall in a particular week by applying filters and manually calssifying them.

(b) The best time series model to forecast volume will be the trend model, as it will show the predicted volumes for the open, high, low and close columns as data is in this format

(c) The R^2 will be a good to determine model validity as high value of R^2 will mean a greater percent of the variability in the data is explained by the model

(d) Graph can be created for the Insert --> Charts section of excel for depicting forecasted volume and actual data

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