all those are related to each other Question 4 The season starts, and your playe

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all those are related to each other

Question 4 The season starts, and your player gets a hit on his first two times at bat. How will your prior change? In other words, Explain why (in your own words using complete sentences) why this prior is a better way track your player at the start of season rather than with alpha = 1 beta 1 Question 5. Now assume that your player has been up to bat 300 times and that over this span he has had 100 hits. How does that change your prior? In other words, What are your new parameters, alpha and beta? Question 6: Has your player met your expectations, your beliefs from the start of the season? Draw and compare both graphs, the prior from the start of the season and this one. Which has a higher average? Which is more narrow? Why? Question 7: How long will you use old data? At this point, should you still be using last year's data? Are your priors from last season still sound? How long does a player's past help predict his future? Explain in your own words what you would do. Question 8: Can this approach be adapted by an investor to track a security in the financial markets? If so, explain how. If not, explain why not. What priors would you use and how would adjust them? (Use your own words, good English, and complete sentences.)

Explanation / Answer

Q1. The players first few hits is not a good predictor of eventual batting average as the player as the player might get lucky for a series of 5-6 hits and get an average of 1.0 ot he might strike out for a series og 5-6 hits and get an average of 0. This is not a good predictor of season long averages as over a period of time, lucks influence on the average will keep getting lower.

Also when a batter gets a 0 in his first hit, no one predicts that he will keep scoring 0 all season is for the same reason as discussed above.

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