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. A and B are mutually exclusive and they are independent. Only 1 in 1000 adults

ID: 3320745 • Letter: #

Question

. A and B are mutually exclusive and they are independent. Only 1 in 1000 adults is afflicted with a rare disease for which a diagnostic test has been developed. The test is such that when an individual actually has the disease, a positive result will occur 99% of the time, whereas an individual without the disease will show a positive test result only 2% of the time. +a666654 wnarsaep 3. (a) If a randomly selected individual is tested, what is the probability that the result will be positive? Answer -62 67 (b) Given that the result is positive, what is the probability that they have the disease? Answer 2 7

Explanation / Answer

a) probability of positive test result =P(have disease and test positive+does not have disease and test positive)

=0.001*0.99+0.999*0.02=0.02097

b)P(have disease given tested postiive) =P(have disease and  test positive)/P(tested positive)

=0.001*0.99/0.02097=0.047213