Jethro was excited to start his new job as a shepherd. Just after lunch, he was

Question

Jethro was excited to start his new job as a shepherd. Just after lunch, he was woken up from his siesta by a rustling sound in the woods near his flock. He immediately jumped to his feet and ran toward his village screaming "WOLF" at the top of his lungs. ( If there had been no wolf attack in over 20 years, give a plausible null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis for this situation. (4 points) o) Give an example of a Type I error for this situation, based in part on your answer to (a). (3 points) b) Give an example of a Type II error for this situation, based in part on your answer to (a). (3 points) c) If the village elders want to be 95% confident of a wolf attack before responding, what is the value of a for this situation? (2 points) d) If the elders changed their minds to a 99% confidence level, what would that do to the value of p? (3 points) e)

Explanation / Answer

a) Null: There was a wolf attack in 20 years

Alt: There was no wolf attack in 20 years

b) In statistical hypothesis testing, a type I error is the incorrect rejection of a true null hypothesis

So, type 1 error would be to say There was no wolf attack in 20 years but infact there has been an attack in 20 years.

c) while a type II error is incorrectly retaining a false null hypothesis (also known as a "false negative" finding).

So, type 1 error would be to say There was a wolf attack in 20 years but infact there has been no attack in 20 years.

d) alpha = 5% or 0.05

e) It will decrease

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