1. The United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) is a group of mathematicians, s

Question

1. The United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) is a group of mathematicians, statisticians, and computer scientists compiling and analyzing data for countries around the world. UNSD collects data related to population, trade, employment, immigration, poverty, disease, health indicators, and more The number of world-wide immigrants and refugees changes from year to year sometimes quite dramatically, depending on political and economic conditions. This table contains data gathered by UNSD about the number of immigrants to Lampedusa, the southernmost Italian island in the Mediterranean Sea. 4 18 Years since 2010 Number of refugees to Lampedusa (ten-thousands) a. Following the methods of Section 5.4, find the coefficients co-G,C2, and C3 of the cubic y co + c1 t + c2 t2 + C3t3 that best fits these points. b. Use the equation from part a to predict the number of refugees to Lampedusa this year (e.g. 2017).

Explanation / Answer

## By using the Minitab

The regression equation is
refugees = 8.09 - 2.74 Time - 1.36 Time^2 + 0.667 Time^3

Predictor Coef SE Coef T P
Constant 8.0857 0.7120 11.36 0.056
Time -2.738 1.811 -1.51 0.372
Time^2 -1.357 1.150 -1.18 0.448
Time^3 0.6667 0.1890 3.53 0.176

S = 0.717137 R-Sq = 99.7% R-Sq(adj) = 98.6%

here

c0=8.0857

c1=-2.738

c2=-1.357

c3=0.6667

b) The number of refugees in 2017 can be predicted by using the equation

refugees = 8.09 - 2.74 Time - 1.36 Time^2 + 0.667 Time^3

that is when Time = 7

refugees = 8.09 - 2.74*7 - 1.36*7^2 + 0.667*7^3

= 151.05

Hence using the regression equation The predicted refugees in 2017 is 151.05 thousands.

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