Exercise 17.15} Ten weeks of data on the Commodity Futures Index are 7.35, 7.40,

Question

Exercise 17.15}

Ten weeks of data on the Commodity Futures Index are 7.35, 7.40, 7.55, 7.56, 7.60, 7.52, 7.52, 7.70, 7.62, and 7.55.

Exercise 17.15}

Ten weeks of data on the Commodity Futures Index are 7.35, 7.40, 7.55, 7.56, 7.60, 7.52, 7.52, 7.70, 7.62, and 7.55.

Which of the following is a time series plot?

Selecttime series plot #atime series plot #btime series plot #c

What type of pattern exists in the data?
Selectparallelperpendicularverticalhorizontal

Compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for = .2 (to 2 decimals). Week = .2
Forecast 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for = .3 (to 2 decimals). Week = .3
Forecast 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

What is the MSE for each exponential smoothing constant (to 4 decimals)? MSE( = .2) MSE( = .3) The constant = provides more accurate forecasts based on MSE.
Using the more accurate forecast, based on MSE, forecast week 11 (to 2 decimals).

Explanation / Answer

fopr graph : option A is correct

exponential smoothing forecasts for = .2 :

  exponential smoothing forecasts for = .3

from above:

MSE(=0.2) =0.0171

MSE(=0.3) =0.0127

constant = 0.3 provides more accurate forecasts based on MSE.

forecast week 11 =7.57

week actual(A) forecast(F) (A-F)^2 1 7.35 2 7.4 7.35 0.003 3 7.55 7.36 0.036 4 7.56 7.40 0.026 5 7.6 7.43 0.029 6 7.52 7.46 0.003 7 7.52 7.48 0.002 8 7.7 7.48 0.046 9 7.62 7.53 0.009 10 7.55 7.55 0.000 7.55 total 0.154 average 0.0171

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