Eight years of qartery data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate

Question

Eight years of qartery data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate an exponential trend model a-1n(/. 2.80 + 0.03t with a standard error of the estimate, se-0.08. In addition, quarterly seasonal indices are calculated as 3 0.9432 = 1.08 :0.88, and 34 = 1.12. a-1. Interpret the third quarterly index. In other words, what is the value of the series in the third quarter as compared to the average? 14% above 14% below 86% above 86% below a-2. Interpret the fourth quarterly index. In other words, what is the value of the series in the fourth quarter as compared to the average? 1296 above 88% above 88% below 01296 below b. Make a forecast for all four quarters of next year. (Round intermediate calculations to at least 4 decimal places and final answers to 2 decimal places.) Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

Explanation / Answer

a) and b) are correct

c)

deseasonalized prediction final Q1 33 44.25640028 41.60101626 41.6 Q2 34 45.60420832 49.25254499 49.25 Q3 35 46.99306323 40.41403438 40.41 Q4 36 48.42421507 54.23512088 54.24

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