Problem #2-Vaccine Does the measles/mumps/rubella (MMR) vaccine cause autism? Do
ID: 3313149 • Letter: P
Question
Problem #2-Vaccine Does the measles/mumps/rubella (MMR) vaccine cause autism? Doctors have always believed that the vaccine is safe. But some parents do not believe this. The author of a research study examining this issue stated that "We did not find evidence to support the idea that the MMR vaccine causes autism.'" A. Based on the author's statement above, which of the following is the Ha in his study? EXPLAIN. i. The MMR vaccine causes autism OR ii. The MMR vaccine does NOT cause autism B. Based on the author's statement above, was he able to reject the null hypothesis? EXPLAINExplanation / Answer
A. The alternate hypothesis, Ha in this study is that the MMR vaccine does not cause autism. The alternate hypothesis occurs when the null hypothesis Ho is false, which in this case is that MMR vaccine causes autism. The problem states that "Doctors have always believed that the vaccine is safe". Hence, the null hypothesis is that the vaccine is safe.
B. The null hypothesis has not been rejected, because there is no mathematical evidence to support that claim. The statement is that "We did not find evidence..." which is not a strong affirmation in favour of the null hypothesis. Not finding something does not imply ot the absolute certainty of that postulate or proposition being not true. We have not even defined a certain level of confidence level based on which we can be sure of our hypothesis. For ex, if we had assumed that for less than 1% of MMR vaccines causing autism, we would claim that the vaccine soes not cause autism, and the actual value was 1.02% with a type I error of 3% (thereby permissible value from 0.97% to 1.03%), the null hypothesis would have been true. But as of now, no such conclusions can be drawn.
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