Demand at Nature Trails Ski Resort has a seasonal pattern. Demand is highest dur

Question

Demand at Nature Trails Ski Resort has a seasonal pattern. Demand is highest during the winter, as this is the peak ski season. However, there is some ski demand in the spring and even fall months. The summer months can also be busy as visitors often come for summer vacation to go hiking on the mountain trails. The owner of Nature Trails would like to make a forecast for each season of the next year. Total annual demand has been estimated at 4,100 visitors. Given the last two years of historical data, what is the forecast for each season of the next year? Visitors 204 523 Seasonn Year 1 Year 2 Fall Winter Spring Summer 243 1,595 552 772 1,430 714 (Round your answers to 0 decimal place, the tolerance is +/-1.) Season Forecast Fall 295 Winter 1970 Spring 689 Summer 985 Click if you would like to Show Work for this question: Sho

Explanation / Answer

Here first we will calculate the seasonal factor for each weather.

Steps are :

First we will calculate average demand for each year.

Step II:

Now we will divide the Seasonal demand for each year with its average.

Step : III Now we will take the average value of proportion calculated for each year.

so, Seasonal indexes are for :

Fall season = 0.2958

WInter season = 2.0050

Spring season = 0.7135

Summer season = 0.9857

Here demand for year 3 = 4100

Step : IV

Demand for fall season = (0.2958/4) * 4100 = 303

Demand for Winter season = (2.0050/4) * 4100 = 2055

Demand for Spring r season = (0.7135/4) * 4100 = 731

Demand for Winter season = (0.9857/4) * 4100 = 1011

All Bold values are final values.

Season Year 1 Year 2 Fall 204 243 Winter 1430 1595 Spring 523 552 Summer 714 772 Sum 2871 3162 Average 717.75 790.5

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