15. Estelle McCarthy, a candidate for state office in New Jersey, has been advis

Question

15. Estelle McCarthy, a candidate for state office in New Jersey, has been advised that she must get 65% ofthe union vote in her state. A recent political poll that sampled likely voters included 800 union-member respondents, and 60% of them said they intended to vote for Ms. McCarthy. Based on the survey, construct the 95% confidence interval for the population proportion of support from likely-voter union members who intend to vote for Ms. McCarthy. Then, consider whether she has the support needed. Choose the correct answer (it will help to think about which value is the baseline and which the sample statistic, as we discussed in lecture). a. Yes she has the support because the baseline value of.60 is outside of the interval b. Yes she has the support because the baseline value of .60 is inside the interval c. No she does not have the support because the baseline value of.65 is inside the interval d. No she does not have the support because the baseline value of .65 is outside of the interval 1-.45 6,05 -116

Explanation / Answer

Standard error, SE = sqrt(p*(1-p)/n) = sqrt(0.6*0.4/800) = 0.0173205

For 0.05 significance level, zcrit = 1.96

95% CI = p +/- zcrit * SE = 0.6 +/- 1.96*0.0173205 = (0.5661, 0.6339)

Answer: Option D. No she does not have the support because the baseline value of 0.65 is outside of the interval

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