How would I calculate mean r then project it 15 years into the future from 2010

Question

How would I calculate mean r then project it 15 years into the future from 2010 to 2025?

4) Estimate the mean growth rate # from the following data series using the arithmetic method... show your work and your answer (8 pts). I included empty cells if you want to do this by hand, you can alternatively use Excel, a calculator, R, or any other tool at your disposal. (Chapter 1 Gotelli, Workshop 2, Lab 1) t 2001 2002 2003 2004 N 65 2005 20062007 2008 2009 2010 39 20 80 36 45 68 Project growth of this population forward 15 years from 2010 to 2025. You will need the values of P from the time series above (7 pts). [Workshop 2, Lab 1] Are these data well-described by the exponential growth model? Why or why not? (5 pts)

Explanation / Answer

Exponential growth model will not describe this dataset properly. Rather polynomial model of degree 6 will give the adjusted R dquare close to 60%

You can try ARIMA model and look at ACF and PACF plots to arrive at the (p,d,q) values

Period 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 N 65 20 80 44 39 44 36 45 68 66 Growth Rate -69% 300% -45% -11% 13% -18% 25% 51% -3% Average Growth Rate 27%(average of all the values above growth rate). -69% is arrived at using formula(20-65)/65 and so on

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