A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequential

Question

A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows:

Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project.

Use the random numbers 0.1778, 0.9617, 0.6849 and 0.4503 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks.

Discuss how simulation could be used to estimate the probability that the project can be completed in 35 weeks or less.

Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The _____mean or percent______ of times 35 weeks and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project will be completed within 35 weeks.

Activity Activity Time
(weeks)
Probability A 5 0.25 6 0.35 7 0.25 8 0.15 B 3 0.20 5 0.55 7 0.25 C 10 0.10 12 0.25 14 0.40 16 0.20 18 0.05 D 8 0.60 10 0.40

Explanation / Answer

Base case calculations for the time to complete the project is,

worst-case calculations for the time to complete the project is,

best-case calculations for the time to complete the project is,

Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The complition time mean or percent complition of times 35 weeks and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project will be completed within 35 weeks.

A 6 B 5 C 14 D 8 Total 33 Weeks

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