Weawmefoods a . A100year food detted as a floodthat has a 1% chance of happening

Question

Weawmefoods a . A100year food detted as a floodthat has a 1% chance of happening in any given yew ndependent from yea. year 1. Ifyou live in the same city for 30 years, whar's the probability you will experience at leant one 100-year food Select the cormect answer, rounded to the nearest hundedth pont 004022260330 074908 Well assume floods ane independene from yearo year Circle all the true stanements a) Piflood in the year 2019 flood in the year 20181-001 b) food in the year 2019 AND flood the year 2018) 001x 001-00001 c) food in the year 2019 OR foodinthe year 2018) . 001 + 001.002 d) None of the above statements ane true 3. Astudent uses the following method so calodate the likelhood of having 100yearfoodsenwesew severe over a Syear period of Sime tep 1: Each year has two possibilisies (flood or no flood) That means we have 2-32 totail oufcomes tp 2 There are only 4 possible ways to get floods in consecutive years tyears 1-2,2-3.34 or45) Step 3. Since probabilityis loosely defined as winsoralI calculate the probability to be 4/32-0125 In as few words as possible, explain why this student's calculation is incomect Should the True" probability be higher or lower than 0.125 Answer: The "rue" probablity should be (cinle onel Nigher than 0.125 o lewer than 0.125 The student's caloulation is inconect because 4 Iask you to rank your three favorite activities of the 7 we've completed in class (choosing your ist second and thrd favorite) Since you liked them all equally. you decide to choose three at random. How many differnt is could you generabe poin 7 c) 7-343 eAnwer mot provided 7 ,r- .-7.6.5.4-210 7-5040 b)

Explanation / Answer

1) from binomial distribution; probability=P(X>=1) =1-P(X=0)=1-(1-0.01)30 =0.26

therefore option C is correct

2) option a and b are correct

3)lower then 0.125

for weightage of flood and no flood are diffferent therefore they can not be treated as equally probable outcomes.

4)

option b is correct

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