Please complete the two highlighted Ten weeks of data on the Commodity Futures I

Question

Please complete the two highlighted

Ten weeks of data on the Commodity Futures Index are 7.35, 7.40, 7.55, 7.56, 7.60, 7.52, 7.52, 7.70, 7.62, and 7.55. a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Compute the backwards three-week moving averages for this data set. c. Compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for alpha = 0.2. d. Compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for alpha = 0.3. e. Which method provides the most accurate forecasts based on MSE? MAE? MAPE?

Explanation / Answer

3-period is most accurate ,as it has lowest MSE ,MAE ,MAPE

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3-peiod moving Exponential alpha = 0.2 Exponential alpha = 0.3 1 7.35 7.35 7.35 2 7.4 7.35 0.05 0.0025 0.67567568 7.35 0.05 0.0025 0.6756757 3 7.55 7.36 0.19 0.0361 2.51655629 7.365 0.185 0.034225 2.4503311 4 7.56 7.433333333 0.126666667 0.01604444 1.675485009 7.398 0.162 0.026244 2.14285714 7.4205 0.1395 0.0194603 1.8452381 5 7.6 7.503333333 0.096666667 0.00934444 1.271929825 7.4304 0.1696 0.02876416 2.23157895 7.46235 0.13765 0.0189475 1.8111842 6 7.52 7.57 0.05 0.0025 0.664893617 7.46432 0.05568 0.003100262 0.74042553 7.503645 0.016355 0.0002675 0.2174867 7 7.52 7.56 0.04 0.0016 0.531914894 7.475456 0.044544 0.001984168 0.59234043 7.5085515 0.0114485 0.0001311 0.1522407 8 7.7 7.546666667 0.153333333 0.02351111 1.991341991 7.4843648 0.2156352 0.046498539 2.80045714 7.5119861 0.188014 0.0353492 2.4417396 9 7.62 7.58 0.04 0.0016 0.524934383 7.52749184 0.09250816 0.00855776 1.21401785 7.5683902 0.0516098 0.0026636 0.6772935 10 7.55 7.613333333 0.063333333 0.00401111 0.838852097 7.54599347 0.00400653 1.60523E-05 0.0530666 7.5838732 0.0338732 0.0011474 0.4486512 7.623333333 7.623333333 58.1152111 7.54679478 7.54679478 56.95411142 7.5737112 7.5737112 57.361102 MAE MSE MAPE MAE MSE MAPE MAE MSE MAPE 0.081428571 0.05861111 1.071335974 0.10933043 0.153764942 1.44077507 0.0903834 0.1146915 1.1910934

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