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1. The director of career advising at Orange Community College wants to use deci

ID: 328531 • Letter: 1

Question

1. The director of career advising at Orange Community College wants to use decision analysis to provide information to help students decide which 2-year degree program they should pursue. The director has set up the following payoff table for six of the most popular and successful degree programs at OCC that shows the estimated 5-year gross income (SIk) from each degree for four future economic conditions: Economic Conditions Robust Degree Program A. Graphic design B. Nursing C. Real estate D. Medical tech. E. Culinary tech. F. Computer info. tech. Recession 145 150 115 130 115 125 Average 175 180 165 180 145 150 Good 220 205 220 210 235 190 260 320 280 305 250 Determine the best degree program in terms of projected income, using the following decision criteria: (a) Maximax (b) Maximin (c) Equal likelihood (d) Hurwicz with a- 0.6 (e) Expected value with probabilities of 0.2, 0.4,0.3, and 0.1 for the four conditions

Explanation / Answer

Degree Program

Recession

Average

Good

Robust

Graphic design

145,000

175,000

220,000

260,000

Nursing

150,000

180,000

205,000

215,000

Real estate

115,000

165,000

220,000

320,000

Medical technology

130,000

180,000

210,000

280,000

Culinary technology

115,000

145,000

235,000

305,000

Computer information

technology

125,000

150,000

190,000

250,000

For Maximax:- Select the miximum of each option:-

Degree Program

Recession

Average

Good

Robust

Maximum

Graphic design

145,000

175,000

220,000

260,000

260000

Nursing

150,000

180,000

205,000

215,000

215000

Real estate

115,000

165,000

220,000

320,000

320000

Medical technology

130,000

180,000

210,000

280,000

280000

Culinary technology

115,000

145,000

235,000

305,000

305000

Computer information

technology

125,000

150,000

190,000

250,000

250000

As Maximum payoff is related to real estate, it should be selected

For Maximin:- Select the minimum of each option:-

Economic Conditions

Degree Program

Recession

Average

Good

Robust

Minimum

Graphic design

145,000

175,000

220,000

260,000

145000

Nursing

150,000

180,000

205,000

215,000

150000

Real estate

115,000

165,000

220,000

320,000

115000

Medical technology

130,000

180,000

210,000

280,000

130000

Culinary technology

115,000

145,000

235,000

305,000

115000

Computer information

technology

125,000

150,000

190,000

250,000

125000

As maximum of minimum value if related to Nursing thus Nursing should be selected.

For Equal Likelihood:- Multiply each value with 0.25 and select the maximum value:-

Degree Program

EMV

Graphic design

200000

Nursing

187500

Real estate

205000

Medical technology

200000

Culinary technology

200000

Computer information

technology

178750

As Maximum payoff is related to real estate, it should be selected.

Hurwicz :-

As ?=0.6 thus 1-? = 1-0.6 = 0.4

Economic Conditions

Degree Program

Recession

Average

Good

Robust

Graphic design

145,000

175,000

220,000

260,000

Nursing

150,000

180,000

205,000

215,000

Real estate

115,000

165,000

220,000

320,000

Medical technology

130,000

180,000

210,000

280,000

Culinary technology

115,000

145,000

235,000

305,000

Computer information

technology

125,000

150,000

190,000

250,000

Weighted avg:-

Graphic design

=(260000*0.6 + 145000*0.4)

=214000

Nursing

=(215000*0.6 + 150000*0.4)

=189000

Real estate

=(320000*0.6 + 115000*0.4)

=238000

Medical technology

=(280000*0.6 + 130000*0.4)

=220000

Culinary technology

=(305000*0.6 + 115000*0.4)

=229000

Computer information

technology

=(250000*0.6 + 125000*0.4)

=200000

As greatest pay off is related to Real Estate thus it should be selected.

Degree Program

Recession

Average

Good

Robust

Graphic design

145,000

175,000

220,000

260,000

Nursing

150,000

180,000

205,000

215,000

Real estate

115,000

165,000

220,000

320,000

Medical technology

130,000

180,000

210,000

280,000

Culinary technology

115,000

145,000

235,000

305,000

Computer information

technology

125,000

150,000

190,000

250,000