My Word Problem Bayes Theorem: You are a research engineer examining the effluen

Question

My Word Problem Bayes Theorem: You are a research engineer examining the effluent (i.e. final discharge) froma wastewater treatment plant in a developing country. You have been asked to assess the health risks associated with inadequate treatment. Analysis of the effluent indicates the following percentages of microorganisms: (20 points) 15% 70% 15% Protozoans Heterotopic Bacteria Helminthes For contact with protozoans, the chance of illness is 35% For heterotrophic bacteria, the chance of illness is 22% Finally, for viruses, the chance of illness is 8% If someone gets an intestinal illness from direct contact with this effluent, what is the likelihood that the illness was caused by the protozoans?

Explanation / Answer

required probability = 0.15 * 0.35 /(0.15 *0.35 + 0.7 * 0.22 + 0.15 * 0.08)

= 0.24027

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