MGMT 320 OM I Section 1 Spring 2018 Time Remaining: 01:08:22 Submit Quiz Quiz: Q

Question

MGMT 320 OM I Section 1 Spring 2018 Time Remaining: 01:08:22 Submit Quiz Quiz: Quiz 3 2 of 15 (0 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov D 15 15 13 18 15 18 22 22 23 24 Sales This exaroise contains only parts b and c to a whole number) sales (round your response Text b) The forecast for the next month (Jan) using the naive method two decimal places) The forecast for the next period (Jan) using a 3-month moving avierage approachsalos (round your response to to the most recent month sales (round your response to one decimal place) Using exponential smoothing with ? = 0.30 and a Septmber , the a 6-month weightod average with weights of 0.10, 0.10, 0.10, 0.20, 0.20, and 0.30, whero the heaviest weights are applied forecast of 18.00, the forecast for the next period (Jan)-sales (round your response to two decimal places) Using a method of trend projection, the forecast for the next month (Jan) sales (round your response to two decimal places) c) The method that can be used for making a forecast for the month of March is Enter January 2017) If you use POM for Windows or Excel OM, please ensure you download our latest OPE R AT?ONS

Explanation / Answer

b)

Naive method: In this, forecast is equal to previous month actual value

Jan = Dec actual = 24

3 month moving average = Average of (Oct, Nov, Dec) = (22+23+24)/3 = 23.00

6 month weighted average = 0.3*Dec + 0.2*Nov + 0.2*Oct + 0.1*Sep + 0.1*Aug + 0.1*Jul = 0.3*24 + 0.2*23 + 0.2*22 + 0.1*22 + 0.1*18 + 0.1*15 = 21.7

Exponential Smoothing average:

Forecast (t+1) = Forecast (t) + alpha*(Actual (t) - Forecast (t))

Oct Forecast = 18 + 0.3*(22-18) = 19.20

Nov Forecast = 19.2 + 0.3*(22 - 19.2) = 20.04

Dec Forecast = 20.04 + 0.3*(23 - 20.04) = 20.93

Jan Forecast = 20.93 + 0.3*(24 - 20.93) = 21.85

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