Stock Link https://herzing.blackboard.com/bbcswebdav/pid-10290397-dt-content-rid

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Stock Link https://herzing.blackboard.com/bbcswebdav/pid-10290397-dt-content-rid-22771670_1/courses/66-2172-A-MA320-7C/Stock%20Quotes.xlsm
Montel Hall link http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html
I. STOCK ANALYSIS First, download the attached Excel file. It collects stock information from Yahoo for any range of dates. Please view the video in week 4 on how to use it. For this part of the project, you are going to use data from the following three stocks: Microsoft (MSF), Apple (AAPL and Staples (SPLS) for 2015. 1) Find the difference between opening and closing values for each day for each stock. Using this information, for each stock, find the probability each stock's value went down on a randomly given day. Find the average closing value for each stock. For each stock. find the probability that a randomly chosen day had a closing value above the mean value. 3) Based on your information, which stocks did well on a daily basis in 2015? Which stocks did poorly? Why? ll. MONTE HALL Next, go to bnoulumathucadedut-onoto Montyumontuhtml. Don't read the explanation first! 1) Practice the game a few times and then seriously play the game at least 50 times. Basically, you are trying to win a car behind one of the three doors. The other two doors have goats which are not winners. Once you select a door, one of the losing doors is revealed. You are then asked whether you want to switch your choice or not. Record whether you switched or did not for each game and whether you won. You should decise to atleast 20smes butnotmore than 30 times. 2) Create a simple frequency table with your choices and results. Find the probability of winning when you switched and the probability of winning if you did not. Do the results surprise you? 4) Now read the explanation. Explain in yourown words why choosing to switch or not affects your probability of winning. Please write-up the answers to the above questions in a Word document. It should have a title page, introduction, and a conclusion and be free of spelling and grammatical mistakes.

Explanation / Answer

Q1)

Ans 1) The probability for MSFT on June 19, 2015 is 0.2451, The value was down by 0.69.The probability for AAPL on Oct 12, 2015 is 0.1292, The value was down by 1.13.The probability for SPLS on April 15, 2015 is 0.4404, The value was down by 0.15.

2) the probability for MSFT with the closing value above the mean value on September 15, 2015 was 0.7852, value was up by 0.790001.The Probability for AAPL with the closing value above the mean on May 8, 2015was 0.8264, value was up by 0.940003.The probability for SPLS with the closing value above the mean on March 23,2015 was 0.5987, value was up by 0.25.

3)Value of AAPL above its mean by .940003 while others have 0.790001 and 0.25.Even though AAPL probability of moving down is high 1.13 compared to others but its risk adjusted return is low means its volatile than others but give more returns on certain days while MSFT and SPLS shows consistent performance.

Q2.

Ans Taking an example of 3 attempts here

BEHIND DOOR 1

BEHIND DOOR 2

BEHIND DOOR 3

RESULT

RESULT IF SWITCHING TO THE DOOR OFFERED

Car

Goat

Goat

Car

Goat

Goat

Car

Goat

Goat

Car

Goat

Goat

Car

Goat

Car

3) in case of switching when i pick door 1. opens a “goat door.” i switch. For scenario 1 you i lost. For the other two scenarios i won, which gives 2/3 odds of winning.

4) In most real game shows, the host opens a door with a goat behind it. If the player's first choice is incorrect, then the host has no choice; he cannot open the door with the car or the player's choice and must therefore open the only remaining door. On the other hand, if the player's first choice is correct, then the host can open either of the remaining doors, since goats are behind both. Thus, he might naturally pick one of these doors at random and check the probability of wins or loses.

BEHIND DOOR 1

BEHIND DOOR 2

BEHIND DOOR 3

RESULT

RESULT IF SWITCHING TO THE DOOR OFFERED

Car

Goat

Goat

Car

Goat

Goat

Car

Goat

Goat

Car

Goat

Goat

Car

Goat

Car

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