Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election

Question

Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election prior to results being talled. Suppose a referendum to increase funding for education is on the ballot in a large town (voting population over 100,0000). An exit poll of 200 voters finds that 106 voted for the referendum. How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is 0.48? Based on your result, comment on the dangers of using exit polling to call elections. How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is 0.48? The probability that more than 106 people voted for the referendum is. (Round to four decimal places as needed.)

Explanation / Answer

phat = 106/200 = 0.53 , n = 200 , p = 0.48

P( P> 0.53)

s = sqrt(p * (1-p)/n)
= sqrt( 0.48 * 0.52 / 200)
= 0.0353
z = ( 0.53 - 0.48) / 0.0353
= 1.4164
we need to find P(z > 1.4164)
P( P> 0.53) = P(z > 1.4164) = 0.0783

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