) Using the following data daily sales data to find the following: Calculate the
ID: 3243509 • Letter: #
Question
) Using the following data daily sales data to find the following:
Calculate the MA values for sales and make a prediction for day 9 and 10. For the Moving Average use 3 time periods.
b) Find the error, error2, and the MSE for the MA model.
c) What would happen if you increased the number of time points you used to get the MA? Try 5 time periods. Calculate the MA values and explain the differences.
Day
Sales (per day)
MA
Error
Error2
1
25
-
-
-
2
14
-
-
-
3
27
-
-
-
4
31
5
25
6
28
7
30
8
35
9
10
Day
Sales (per day)
MA
Error
Error2
1
25
-
-
-
2
14
-
-
-
3
27
-
-
-
4
31
5
25
6
28
7
30
8
35
9
10
Explanation / Answer
(a) and (b)
For 3 time periods, The next day sales is equal to the average of previous 3 days sales. The MA and error values are caluculated below.
Day
Sales (per day)
MA
Error
Error2
1
25
-
-
-
2
14
-
-
-
3
27
-
-
-
4
31
22
22-31 = -9
81
5
25
24
24-25 = -1
1
6
28
27.67
27.67 - 28 = -0.33
0.109
7
30
28
28 - 30 = -2
4
8
35
27.67
27.67 - 35 = -7.33
53.73
9
31
10
32
MSE = (81+1+0.109+4+53.73)/5 = 27.97
For 5 time periods, The next day sales is equal to the average of previous 5 days sales. The MA and error values are caluculated below.
Day
Sales (per day)
MA
Error
Error2
1
25
-
-
-
2
14
-
-
-
3
27
-
-
-
4
31
-
-
-
5
25
-
-
-
6
28
24.4
24.4 - 28 = -3.6
12.96
7
30
25
25 - 30 = -5
25
8
35
28.2
28.2 - 35 = -6.8
46.24
9
29.8
10
29.56
MSE = (12.96+25+46.24)/3 = 28.06
The MSE values of both the models are nearly equal.
Day
Sales (per day)
MA
Error
Error2
1
25
-
-
-
2
14
-
-
-
3
27
-
-
-
4
31
22
22-31 = -9
81
5
25
24
24-25 = -1
1
6
28
27.67
27.67 - 28 = -0.33
0.109
7
30
28
28 - 30 = -2
4
8
35
27.67
27.67 - 35 = -7.33
53.73
9
31
10
32
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