21. There is a low (but real) negative correlation between the amount of rain in

Question

21. There is a low (but real) negative correlation between the amount of rain in a given summer and the amount the summer before. In the absence of any information except that this summer is wetter than usual, you are asked to guess next summer’s rain. What is your best guess? (A) Somewhat more than the average summer rainfall. (B) The average summer rainfall. (C) Somewhat less than the average summer rainfall. (D) The standard deviation of the rainfall. (E) The interquartile range is higher than 20 minutes.

Explanation / Answer

Since the correlation is low, it would not be a significant one. Hence,

The best prediction will be sample mean.

So,

Option B is correct.

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