4000 ANS: C 6. Refer to Exhibit 15-3. The expected value with perfect informatio

Question

4000 ANS: C 6. Refer to Exhibit 15-3. The expected value with perfect information is a, 4000 3580 3384 196 d. ANS: B 17. Refer to Exhibit 15-3. The expected value of perfect information is a. 4000 b. 3580 apen arch C. 3384 eyfeeted value NS: D Exhibit 15-4. You are given the following profit table. Decision States of Nature Alternative S2 100 200 50 300 500 0 Assume that for the two state of nature, si and sz, and two indicators, I "favorable" and 12 "unfavorable", the following probability information is available. POs)-0.3 POlls) 0.9 POhls) 0.1 18. Refer to Exhibit 154. What is the probability POI)? a. 0.41 0.59 c. 0.50 d. 1.00 ANS: A 19. Refer to Exhibit 15-4. What is the pesterior probability P(sWI)? a. 0.6585 b. 0.3415 c. 0.0508 P (1) d. 0.9492

Explanation / Answer

23) Expected values with out sample informatio

Exp(d1) =100*P(S1) +200 *P(s2) =100*0.3 +200 *0.7 =30+140 =170

E(d2) =50*P(S1) +300 *P(s2) =50*0.3 + 300*0.7 =15 +210 =225

E9(d3) =500*(S1) +0 *P(s2) =500*0.3 +0*0.7 =150+0 =150

hence expected value =225 (highest value)

24.Expected value sample information =expected value with sample inforemation -expected value with out sample information

  

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