contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). In Excel, cre

Question

contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). In Excel, create forecasts for periods 6-13 using each of the following methods: 5 period simple moving average; 4 period weighted moving average (0.63, 0.26, 0.08, 0.03); exponential smoothing (alpha = 0.23 and the forecast for period 5 = 53); linear regression with the equation based on all 12 periods; and quadratic regression with the equation based on all 12 periods. Round all numerical answers to two decimal places. QUESTION 1 The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are: (1) 45 (2) 52 (3) 48 (4) 59 (5) 55 (6) 57 (7) 64 (8) 63 (9) 72 (10) 66 (11) 70 (12) 73 Using a 5 period simple moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be: QUESTION 2 Using the 4 period weighted moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be: QUESTION 3 With exponential smoothing, the forecast for period 13 will be: QUESTION 4 With linear regression, the forecast for period 13 will be: QUESTION 5 With quadratic regression, the forecast for period 13 will be: QUESTION 6 Considering only the forecasts for period 6-12, what is the lowest MAD value for any of the methods?

Explanation / Answer

1) 5 period mmoving average =

1/5(73+70+66+72+63)= 68.8

2)4 period weighted moving average =

0.63*73+0.26*70+0.08*66+0.03*72 = 71.63

3)With exponential smoothing, the forecast for period 13 will be: 66.13743

4)linear regression

y = 44.606 + 2.42x

y = 44.606+2.42*13 = 76.066

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