time Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters

Question

time Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of the year for a quarterly series.

Quarter                                Seasonal Index

Q1                                         70.1

Q2                                        80.9

Q3                                          109.2

Remember that the seasonal indices shold average 100 so you should be able to infer the seasonal index for Q4

Furthermore, suppose that the estimated coefficients from a regression of the deseasonalized series on Time are given below.

Intercept                             2375

Time                                     64.5

What is the forecast for period 70, if period is 70 in Q1.

Answer is     4829.9,     I just have no ifea how to get it

Explanation / Answer

here deseasonalized predicted value for 70th period =2375+70*64.5=6890

as 70th period falls into quarter 1; hence seasonalized predicted value =6890*70.1/100 =4829.90

please reply for any query

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