3-5. State which interpretation of the probability statement seems most appropri

Question

3-5. State which interpretation of the probability statement seems most appropriate (classical, relative frequency, or subjective). No interpretations needed on #3-#5.

3. The National Angus Association has stated there is a 60/40 chance that wholesale beef prices will rise by summer- that is, a 0.60 probability of an increase and a 0.40 probability of a decrease.

4. The Quality Control division of a chemical manufacturer undertook an intensive process- validation study for a new herbicide. From this study that was comprised of 1,000 batch samples, the QC division claims that the probability of the new herbicide’s shelf life exceeding the minimal time specified by the regulatory standard is 0.998.

5. Based on a study of its patient records, 215 of the 500 total patients at a clinic were male. Therefore, the probability of a randomly selected patient being male is 0.43.

Explanation / Answer

3. The National Angus Association has stated there is a 60/40 chance that wholesale beef prices will rise by summer- that is, a 0.60 probability of an increase and a 0.40 probability of a decrease.

In this problem, relative frequency approach is the best because the chance 60/40 is considered.

4.The Quality Control division of a chemical manufacturer undertook an intensive process- validation study for a new herbicide. From this study that was comprised of 1,000 batch samples, the QC division claims that the probability of the new herbicide’s shelf life exceeding the minimal time specified by the regulatory standard is 0.998.

Here the subjective approach to probability works the best because here a large dataset is used (n tends to infinite) to calculate the probability.

5. Based on a study of its patient records, 215 of the 500 total patients at a clinic were male. Therefore, the probability of a randomly selected patient being male is 0.43.

Here, a simple m/n approach (classical approach) is used to calculate probabillty as 215/500=0.43

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