Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of t

Question

Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of the year for a quarterly series:

Remember that the seasonal indices should average 100 so you should be able to infer the seasonal index for Q4.


Furthermore, suppose that the estimated coeffcients from a regression of the deseasonalized series on Time are given below:

If the original value of the series in a Q4 was 2,451, then what is the seasonally adjusted value? (please round your answer to 1 decimal place)

Explanation / Answer

The regression line for the time is Yx=2209+61.2(x)

Seasonal index for Q4. Ie x=4

Y4=2209+61.2(4) =2453.8

The seasonal adjustment value is

                                    Y4+(Q3-Q2) = 2453.8 +(108.6-80.9)

                                                        =2481.5

The seasonal adjustment value is 2481.5

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