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ID: 3217486 • Letter: R
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Record all answers on the answer sheet that is provided. No aredit will be given for answers marked the test on Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is: A. a moving average forecast B. a naive C. an exponentially smoothed forecast D, an associative forecast E. none of the above 2. For the data given below, what would the naive forecast be for the next period? Period Demand A. 58 B. 62 C. 59.5 D. 61 E. none of the above 3. Which of the following smoothing nstants, alpha, would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast? B. .01 D, .5 E. 1.0 4. Given the following data, develop a forecast for period 6 using a 3-period moving average. Period Demand 19 5. A three period moving forecast resulted in a value of 2200 for period 4. Assuming the values for periods 1 and 3 are as given below, what must have been the value for period 2? Period Value 2100 3 2300 (Continued on Reverse Side jExplanation / Answer
1) naive forecast is use to predect fure observation using last observed value+
2) 61
3 ) 0.01 but commonly we use 0.02 as a smoothing constant
4)
Forecasts
Period Forecast Lower Upper
6 18 15.2282 20.7718
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