Bayes\' Theorem A skin test for a disease is less expensive but less accurate th

Q: Bayes' Theorem A skin test for a disease is less expensive but less accurate th

Here' the answer to the question and the steps : a) P(tests positive and does not have the disease) = (1-.2)*.3 = .24 b) This is conditional probability = (1-.2)*(1-.3) /.2*(1-.95) +(1-.2)*(1-.3) = .9825

ID: 3205764 • Letter: B

Question

Bayes' Theorem

A skin test for a disease is less expensive but less accurate than an X-ray. In a country 20% of the adult population has this disease, the skin test is positive 95% of the time. If a person does not have the disease, it will be positive 30% of the time.

(a) what the probability that a person tests positive and does not have the disease? Round your answer to four decimal places.

(b)what is the probability that a person who tests negative does not have the disease? Round your answer to four decimal places.

Explanation / Answer

Here' the answer to the question and the steps :

a) P(tests positive and does not have the disease) = (1-.2)*.3 = .24

b) This is conditional probability = (1-.2)*(1-.3) /.2*(1-.95) +(1-.2)*(1-.3) = .9825

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Bayes\' Theorem A skin test for a disease is less expensive but less accurate th

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